From Aug. 15, the day that the first domestic case of the new flu infection was confirmed, until yesterday, the death toll has reached 28. Some 24 were in the high-risk category. The daily average of confirmed cases surpassed 4,000 last week and the health authorities estimate the figure has grown this week. Over the past week, multiple infections broke out at 870 schools nationwide.
“Between 20 and 50 percent of H1N1 deaths overseas were people who were normally healthy, although there are some fluctuations among countries,” said Kwon Joon-wook, an official with the disease control center. “Given that even those in the non-high-risk category are exposed to the risk of catching the flu with the rapid spread of the disease, it is recommended that anyone showing symptoms should visit a hospital, get diagnosed and take antiviral medication.”
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
26-year-old Korean dies of swine flu; local death toll hits 29.
The death toll in Korea from swine flu has risen to 29, and among the most recent to die is a 26-year-old woman. From the Joongang Ilbo, which still has the number of dead at 28:
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You can tune out swine flu statistics from the US because hospitals quit testing for it in late August. All flu cases are treated as swine flu.
True, that. Nevertheless, they're estimating the number of deaths so far at 1000 at least, and this is still pre-flu season.
I usually get the flu in the summer. Is that the off-season?
Still, compared to the normal flu that kills hundreds of thousands a year, I hope this one stays relatively mild and that we never have a "Spanish version" ever flare up again.
Up to 33:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/10/117_54431.html
Sonagi, I think if there's a death following flu like symptoms they still do test specifically if it was the swine flu strain. But you're right, they've simply stopped collecting data on the number of infections.re
I just got a text message from a friend who works at a math hagwon on the subject of swine flu. While I would treat this as ungrounded rumor at the moment, she said that "the government" was considering the possibility of forcing private schools to close for one month on account of the flu. She didn't know much about details (for example: would it be focused in Seoul, or applied nation-wide) so this may be speculation; but still worth keeping in mind for the future.
For those in the national assembly who want to remove hagwons from the educational system here, well, swine flu might serve as a good excuse.
Yeah, at this point they might try anything. The paper tonight also says some doctors are recommending closing public schools for a week or two:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/10/117_54429.html
Uptake of the new swine flu vaccine among NHS staff is set to be low as many have fear over its safety. http://www.swineflubritain.co.uk/
At a staff meeting in August, our school nurse told us that swine flu cases were expected to peak in October and November. Our absentee rate right now is high, at least double the usual numbers for this time of year. Most kids are out 3-5 days. There have been a few hospitalizations, but most kids are recovering at home. One staff member is out with the flu. I opted not to get either shot, and so far so good. I rarely get the regular flu anyway and when I do, I'm never sick for more than a day, so I'll rely on my immune system to keep me healthy.
Is there any particular reason you're opting not to get the shot?
Your description of your mad immunity and recovery skills are reminiscent of Dwight Schrute. ;)
Don't these ppl die from complications from flu (i.e. pneumonia) rather than the flu itself?
People who get the swine flu shot are statistically more likely to get the regular flu. There is no explanation as to why this is.
Adverse reactions are rare, but they do occur, and there are no published statistics available on the risk of having a reaction even though health care providers are required to document reactions.
People in my age group have a low risk of contracting H1N1 and a very low risk of complications. The risks of getting the vaccine are unknown.
Anecdotally I know personally of several people who have had adverse reactions to the regular flu shot, but like H1N1, there are no statistics on adverse reactions. I have never gotten the flu shot and see no reason to take an unknown risk if there is very little risk of getting seriously ill if I don't get vaccinated.
Back in 1976, 1 person died of the swine flu while 26 died of Guillian-Barre or other complications. It is not known how many people got the flu versus how many got the vaccine and didn't get the flu, so it is not possible to compare the risks of each. The present vaccine is probably safer than the one used 30 years ago, but nevertheless, I prefer a known, very low risk of getting seriously ill from the flu to an unknown risk of getting the vaccine.
||People who get the swine flu shot are statistically more likely to get the regular flu. There is no explanation as to why this is.||
I thought the claim was the other way around. People who got last year's flu vaccine are ostensibly more likely to get H1N1. Has there been a regular flu since the H1N1 vaccine came out, oh, last week?
The claim was made via science by press conference before the paper passed peer review. If the results have passed peer review, I'd be curious to see a reference to the actual paper.
||People in my age group have a low risk of contracting H1N1 and a very low risk of complications. The risks of getting the vaccine are unknown.||
There's good biological plausibility to think the risks are the same as any other flu vaccine. It's made the same as any other flu vaccine, the only thing different is the H and the N are changed.
A flu vaccine for low risk people is not to protect you but to build the herd immunity around people who are at risk and can't get the vaccine.
It's not about you, it's about who you might pass it on to. The flu vaccine requires some level of altruism.
I thought the claim was the other way around. People who got last year's flu vaccine are ostensibly more likely to get H1N1.
You are correct.
"There's good biological plausibility to think the risks are the same as any other flu vaccine."
Why is that? In any case, some people do react to the regular flu vaccine. I have a friend who won't take it because she got sick after previous shots. May be merely coincidental or may be causal. No way to know.
"A flu vaccine for low risk people is not to protect you but to build the herd immunity around people who are at risk and can't get the vaccine.
It's not about you, it's about who you might pass it on to. The flu vaccine requires some level of altruism."
The choice of whether or not to get a vaccine is both individual and altruistic. I live alone and have daily contact with little germ factories. It is much, much, much more likely that I would contract the flu from one of my students than the other way around, and they are much, much, much, MUCH more likely to contract it from each other than from a teacher owing to closer contact and differences in hygiene. In fact, in one kinder classroom, the swine flu is literally making its way around the classroom. Each week a different table has a high number of students absent.
Vaccines DO have a risk, and every person has a basic human right to weigh the risks. No one has any moral obligation to get a vaccine to protect others. Even our government recognizes this right and thus allows parents to apply for vaccine waivers for children enrolling in school.
But Sonagi, I'm curious about your claim that last year's flu vaccine will increase your chances of getting H1N1. Aside from a single press release issue about a paper "in press" (ie it hasn't passed peer review), what is the basis for your claim? Was that it?
||"There's good biological plausibility to think the risks are the same as any other flu vaccine."
Why is that? In any case, some people do react to the regular flu vaccine. I have a friend who won't take it because she got sick after previous shots. May be merely coincidental or may be causal. No way to know.||
Why? I made the claim and then offered the rational right after. Didn't you read it. Let me repeat: This vaccine's manufacture is no different. We've made many safe H1N1 flu vaccines in times past. The only thing changed are two surface proteins (the H and the N). If you make a car exactly the same way and only change the color, is it plausible to say a red car might be more dangerous than last year's blue car?
||The choice of whether or not to get a vaccine is both individual and altruistic. I live alone and have daily contact with little germ factories. It is much, much, much more likely that I would contract the flu from one of my students than the other way around, and they are much, much, much, MUCH more likely to contract it from each other than from a teacher owing to closer contact and differences in hygiene.||
Yes, everyone thinks they're not a risk. Famous last words, of course. I will be getting the vaccine despite a minuscule risk because I also know there's a larger chance I might pass it on to someone who can't hack it. It just takes me sneezing onto a Starbuck's table and someone picking it up from that.
Yes, the press report was the basis for my claim.
"Yes, everyone thinks they're not a risk."
I never said I was not a risk. I said I was a very LOW risk. I made very clear in my first post that my decision was based on weighing a KNOWN LOW risk of contracting the virus versus an UNKNOWN risk of reacting to the vaccine. The risk of an adverse reaction is probably low but still unknown because a) I've never gotten a flu vaccine; and b) there are no published statistics on the percentage or number of adverse reactions to the regular flu vaccine and obviously none for the new swine flu vaccine.
||I made very clear in my first post that my decision was based on weighing a KNOWN LOW risk of contracting the virus versus an UNKNOWN risk of reacting to the vaccine.||
But that's like *any* vaccine. Each of us is at low risk of getting mumps, rubella, whooping cough, etc. Vaccines work best when we all collectively contribute to herd immunity.
||The risk of an adverse reaction is probably low but still unknown because a) I've never gotten a flu vaccine; and b) there are no published statistics on the percentage or number of adverse reactions to the regular flu vaccine and obviously none for the new swine flu vaccine.||
You're not aware of published stats on the risks of regular flu vaccines? Seriously?
"You're not aware of published stats on the risks of regular flu vaccines? Seriously?"
Yup. I've not read any statistics in online reports. I did a little searching at the CDC and its 2008 VAERS data listed 36,000 reported adverse reactions to all vaccines. Apparently you have some relevant statistics to share, so don't hold back.
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